Snow may not blanket Tucson’s desert floor, but just an hour north, the nation’s southernmost ski resort is preparing for winter.
Mount Lemmon Ski Valley, perched high in the Catalina Mountains, is facing a season of below-normal precipitation, according to Chris Rasmussen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tucson.
“Right now we’re in a neutral phase, but there’s about a 71% chance of moving into La Niña this fall,” Rasmussen said. “For December through February, our outlook is below normal precipitation across the desert Southwest.”
For Ski Valley, that forecast means conditions could be unpredictable: a few days of solid snow, followed by warm spells that quickly melt it away. Rasmussen explained that forecasting mountain snowfall is trickier than predicting conditions for Tucson.
“Tucson itself may end up getting half an inch of rainfall,” he said, “but you can have 6 inches to a foot of snow up on the mountains from the same storm.”
The timing of the first big snow is also uncertain. Rasmussen said significant snowfall usually arrives in late November or early December but noted that this year it’s too early to say if the mountain is on track.
When storms do hit, he cautioned that temperatures can “crash” quickly, sometimes dropping sharply after a system passes. Visitors, he added, should check forecasts before driving up the Catalina Highway and watch for National Weather Service winter storm watches and warnings.
Flagstaff, just four hours north of Tucson, is predicted to have average snowfall for the year. For the Snow Bowl though, “average” means something different.
The San Francisco Peaks typically collect more than 100 inches of snow in an average season, enough to give Arizona Snowbowl months of reliable skiing. With higher elevation and the ability to make artificial snow, the Snowbowl can count on a steady stream of winter tourism.
Mount Lemmon’s season, meanwhile, is often short and fragmented. The comparison underscores how unique Ski Valley’s position is, not only as the southernmost ski resort in the country but as one where every snow day feels fleeting.
For Tucson residents, snow doesn’t need to be deep to draw a crowd; its rarity is what makes the trip worthwhile. Even in a below-average year, a single storm can turn Mount Lemmon into a playground, offering locals the rare chance to trade saguaros for snow without leaving Southern Arizona.
Arizona Sonoran News is a news service of University of Arizona School of Journalism.
Mount Lemmon Ski Valley, 10300 E. Ski Run Road, Mount Lemmon: 21 trails and three lifts on natural snow. It usually opens by mid-December if conditions allow. Cost: Adult lift tickets $73. Details: skithelemmon.com.
Arizona Snow Bowl, 9300 N. Snow Bowl Road, Flagstaff: Snow Bowl has 61 trails and eight lifts. Opening day is Nov. 21. Thanks to extensive snowmaking, Snow Bowl typically records around 260 inches of snow per year and maintains a season that can stretch into May. Cost: Starts at $225 for a day pass. Details: snowbowl.ski
