A new Venezuelan migration movement might be underway, poised to become the largest exodus since the country’s political crisis began more than a decade ago.
The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies has raised concerns about the likelihood of a large-scale migration of Venezuelans beginning Jan. 10, the date set for the Venezuelan presidential inauguration, if a humanitarian solution doesn’t emerge.
Tensions in Venezuela are escalating as incumbent President Nicolás Maduro and opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia—both of whom claim they won the July 28 presidential election—plan to attend the Maduro-controlled National Assembly to be sworn in on Jan. 10.
Last summer, international observers, including the United Nations, called for transparency as violent protests erupted nationwide in reaction to what was called “a massive fraud.” Maduro’s government responded with violence.
The U.S. southern border remains heavily secured, and Nogales continues its efforts to prevent unauthorized crossings, yet the number of Venezuelan migrants could grow soon due to the political repression in Venezuela.
“The latest report from the UN Interagency Group on Mixed Migration (GIFEM) dated Nov. 22 does not show an increase: 1,152 daily entries into the United States. There’s been a decrease in departures as people are waiting to make a decision with (President-elect Donald) Trump’s return, but the number of people who have moved from Venezuela to Colombia in need of protection has risen,” said Laura Dib, Venezuela program director at the Washington Office on Latin America, a nonpartisan research and advocacy organization.
The Biden administration’s agreements with Mexico to intercept these new political refugees haven’t deterred their quest for the American dream.
“The intention to migrate has not disappeared,” said Dib.
Some Venezuelans are just stranded in Colombia, Venezuela, or elsewhere as they seek protection from the regime’s persecution. Only a few make it to their final U.S. destination, leaving more displaced individuals in precarious limbo or exposed to criminal exploitation, discrimination and violence along the journey.
“The lack of legal avenues fuels criminal networks that thrive on human suffering,” said Dib.
Despite these obstacles, Venezuelans fleeing Maduro’s regime now represent one of the largest groups attempting to migrate through Mexico.
As Jan. 10 approaches, the U.S., and particularly Arizona, an important port of entry thousands of miles from Venezuela, might soon feel the impact of geopolitics—the direct consequences of Maduro’s authoritarian measures.
Repression and Torture Generate Political Refugees
The Venezuelan post-election repression has produced a new wave of refugees since July.
“They are journalists, human rights activists, election observers … citizens who are now marked targets by Maduro’s government,” explained Dib.
With the holiday season approaching in a country where police officers earn just $20 a month and are struggling to survive, some have turned to cashing in on the underground business of repression and torture. This extortion system has become routine in Venezuelan prisons, targeting struggling families who can’t afford the ransom.
In Caracas, Arizona Sonoran News met with one of those citizens who, out of fear of retaliation, would only speak if he remained anonymous.
He said he was trying to support his family in the midst of a crumbling economy by selling household goods on Instagram. Without the proper permits, he quickly became an easy target for corrupt police officers looking to make a quick buck. Pretending to be buyers, they reached out to him. At the agreed meeting spot on a public street, they ambushed him, threw a hood over his head, and took him to El Helicoide—the intelligence service headquarters, infamously known as “the largest torture center in Latin America.”
In a dark room, he was handcuffed by his thumbs, hung by those cuffs, and forced to balance on the sharp edges of old tire rims.
The officers demanded $3,000 for his release.
The marks on his hands do not lie.
We met him in a secret press safehouse in the heart of Caracas.
The space is run by a local journalist, Daniel Garrido, who dedicates himself to protecting his sources and providing foreign colleagues a safe physical space to work during sensitive coverage.
He, too, has been targeted by Venezuela’s intelligence services, which kidnapped him in 2019.
“They put a hood filled with excrement over my head and took me away. When I coughed, they sarcastically sprinkled talcum powder on the hood. They would say it would make it smell better. The more I choked on the powder, the harder they laughed,” he recalled.
As the golden hour in Caracas filtered through the yellowed newspapers covering his studio’s windows, Garrido explained why he took such precautions to keep the location secret.
“The studio was ransacked once already. Thankfully, I wasn’t there,” he said.
Arizona Sonoran News used the space to meet with Melania Leal, the sister of political prisoner Emirlendris Benítez.
The mother of two was on an errand with their husband when she was arrested in 2018, accused in an alleged drone attack against Nicolás Maduro. A police checkpoint stopped them, and without explanation or an arrest warrant, they were taken to interrogation. They were 4 months pregnant.
Subjected to a series of tortures while detained, Benítez lost the baby within days.
NGO reports describe her being submerged in buckets of water during interrogations meant to force a confession.
On her most recent court appearance, she arrived in a wheelchair.
“One time, I removed her shoe, and her toenail was gone—they had ripped it out with a hammer,” Leal recounted.
Amnesty International has repeatedly called for urgent medical attention for Benítez, highlighting her case as emblematic of systemic abuses in Venezuela.
Her mistreatment also included psychological torture, such as prolonged isolation and threats against her son. She has gone to great lengths to shield her now 10-year-old boy from the truth of her situation.
“He thinks his mother works in a factory, which is why there are so many guards,” Leal explained. “She doesn’t want him traumatized. She’s a true mama bear.”
Benítez continues to assert her innocence. She was sentenced to 30 years in prison.
“All my sisters had to migrate to help support her, to pay for a lawyer,” Leal said. “If I could, I would leave, too, but I stayed to fight from here for Emirlendris.”
These allegations are among the 138 cases of torture documented by the NGO Foro Penal.
“The scale of repression is unprecedented,” said Eduardo Torres, a human rights lawyer in Caracas and a member of a committee that advocates for families of political prisoners.
“The trials are staged and fake evidence is fabricated,” Torres said. “Prisoners are tortured with electric shocks to their genitals, forced to eat feces and many die in prison due to injuries or lack of medical care.”
For Torres, these abuses are reminiscent of the treatment inflicted by Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad, known as “the Butcher of Damascus,” in the prisons of his regime.
“If you look at the numbers, what happens in Venezuela has not even been seen in the dictatorships of (Agentine’s Jorge Rafael) Videla or (Chile’s Agusto) Pinochet,” he said.
In Chacao, the capital downtown, 90-year-old Bernardete runs a bar that has witnessed the path of repression since the socialist revolution.
“If those walls could talk, they’d tell you the story of Venezuela,” she said.
In 1973, she and her husband Gaetano, freshly arrived from Portugal, took over this small establishment, which would go on to become an institution: Café de Inés. In recent years, Bernardete has opened her doors during every protest, offering refuge to young people chased by the armed forces.
Lined with photos of local reporters and moments captured over decades by foreign correspondents who have since left the country, the bar is a living museum of Venezuela’s history of free journalism.
Today, no correspondents dare to risk stopping by for a beer or a maltita, and the younger crowd has fled the country.
“This used to be the headquarters for young people and journalists. Everybody is gone,” she said with a sigh.
Despite her iconic status and generosity, Bernardete lives in extreme poverty. Her $6-a-month pension isn’t enough to afford food some nights. She survives thanks to the kindness of those she once protected.
“I have faith that Edmundo Gonzalez will come back on Jan. 10th to claim his president role,” she said.
With state forces cracking down on dissent, the Venezuelan opposition remains in hiding, heavily pursued by the regime.
The Oil Connection: Silence Is Gold
In response to these political developments, the United States since 2015 has progressively tightened its sanctions policy against Venezuela. Initially, these measures aimed to financially isolate the Venezuelan government by blocking access to American financial markets and restricting oil transactions.
For the United States, this move was meant to encourage democratic processes.
“All for freedom” was the motto.
To a certain extent.
In April 2024, sanctions were largely reinstated, with the notable exception of License 41 allowing Chevron to maintain its oil activities in Venezuela.
A few months later, in July, the American company’s position following Nicolás Maduro’s contested electoral victory was cautious and muted.
Chevron has stressed the necessity of continuing its oil operations in Venezuela, emphasizing that its presence limits the influence in Latin America of geopolitical rivals like Russia, Iran and China — highly active in Venezuela — and bolsters U.S. energy security. As tensions in the Middle East create additional pressure on global oil markets, Washington relies more on Caracas.
“Without access to Venezuelan oil, the U.S. would face increased reliance on less favorable markets like the Middle East,” said Francisco Monaldi, a Venezuela oil policy expert.
While Washington condemns Maduro’s regime, it simultaneously relies on Caracas to help stabilize global oil markets.
“What price should Maduro’s regime pay after stealing the election?” asked Dib.
Chevron argues that its operations help prevent Venezuela’s total economic collapse. It asserts that its apolitical stance allows it to adapt to whichever government is in power, a strategy it has relied on for over a century in the country — even under far-right or socialist dictatorships.
Trump allies like Representative Maria Salazar, R-Florida, have called for an immediate end to Chevron’s operations in Venezuela, arguing that continuing oil exports funds Maduro’s regime.
The possibility of a return to the “maximum pressure” strategy looms with Trump’s inauguration in January.
But the sanctions Trump imposed in his first term from 2017-2020 directly contributed to the deep decline of Venezuela’s already weakened economy. They exacerbated humanitarian issues and led to widespread hunger and malnutrition that influenced migration patterns.
Yet Dib warns against oversimplification: “Migration was there before the sanctions, because it’s multicausal,” she said.
Over 7.7 million people have fled the country since the 2015 sanctions, with many crossing the perilous Darién Gap — a jungle between Panama and Colombia — in 2024 alone. Following the fraudulent election in July, at least 180,000 Venezuelans have fled, mostly opposition campaign staffers and dissidents.
“The regime has confiscated and invalidated many passports, making undocumented immigration inevitable,” explained Dib.
Arizona, particularly Nogales, has seen a surge in Venezuelan arrivals. Shelters like Casa Alitas reported an increase in Venezuelan migrants this year.
Commenting on the potential number of migrants in the event of a worsening crisis, the IFRC’s migration coordinator for the Americas, José Félix Rodríguez told Arizona Sonoran News the difficulty of providing accurate estimates, as migration projections in such scenarios often fall short of the actual scale.
“What we know is the record number of migrants in transit demonstrates restrictive policies based on security and border closures have neither reduced migratory flows nor the risks faced by migrants. Most of them seek family reunification or are fleeing violence, political instability and conflicts like in Venezuela,” said Rodríguez. “Addressing migration challenges is both a humanitarian imperative and a shared responsibility, with hundreds of thousands of lives at stake.”
A Russian and Iranian Influence Foothold, Just Hours From U.S. Soil?
Beyond the socio-economical sphere, Venezuela’s alliances with Iran and Russia add a complex layer to the crisis. Both nations have supported Maduro diplomatically and militarily. Reports of Iranian military personnel training in Venezuela and the presence of Hezbollah-linked operatives conducting money-laundering operations have raised alarms among U.S. national security officials. According to InSight Crime, an organization specializing in organized crime across Latin America, Venezuela’s armed guerillas (the “colectivos”) that now play a key role in supporting Maduro’s hold on power, were trained by the Lebanese Islamist paramilitary group.
Reports from Costa Rica suggest that Venezuela, Bolivia, and Nicaragua have become operational hubs for Islamic terrorist groups, further cementing the connection between these authoritarian regimes and networks that contribute to regional instability.
“Hezbollah launders money through businesses in Venezuela,” said M. Jeferson Guarin, regional security analyst. “This convergence of terrorism and organized crime destabilizes the region, propping up regimes like Maduro’s.”
Recent events in Syria, however, underscore the limitations of these alliances. Russia and Iran, both stretched thin by conflicts elsewhere, failed to secure Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This inability to protect a key ally in the Middle East suggests Maduro may be increasingly more isolated than previously thought, as opposition leader Machado pointed out to ABC last week-end.
“Without robust support from his traditional backers, his regime faces mounting vulnerabilities. If the United States were to intervene, now would be the perfect moment,” Guarin said during a phone call from Australia. “Eventually, all dictatorships fall. Not only in Syria. Freedom cannot be muzzled forever.”
Arizona Sonoran News is a news service of the University of Arizona School of Journalism.
The story is published without a name to protect the reporter.